논문 : 지구온난화에 따른 제주도 내 참다래 개화일의 지리적 이동
분야
농학 > 기타(농학)
저자
권영순 ( Young Soon Kwon ) , 김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ) , 서형호 ( Hyeong Ho Seo ) , 문경환 ( Kyung Hwan Moon ) , 윤진일 ( Jin Il Yun )
발행기관
한국농림기상학회
간행물정보
한국농림기상학회지 2012년, 제14권 제4호, 179~188페이지(총10페이지)
파일형식
0e200740.pdf [무료 PDF 뷰어 다운로드]
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    영문초록
    A kiwifruit cultivar ``Hayward`` has been grown in Jeju Island where the current climate is suitable for growth and development of this crop. Prediction of the geographical shift in the phenology can help the kiwifruits growers to adapt to the local climate change in the future. Two phenology models (i.e., chill-day and DVS) were parameterized to estimate flowering date of kiwifruits ``Hayward`` based on the data collected from field plots and chamber experiments in the southern coastal and island locations in South Korea. Spatio-temporally independent datasets were used to evaluate performance of the two models in predicting flowering date of ``Hayward``. Chill-day model showed better performance than DVS model (2.5 vs. 4.0 days in RMSE). Daily temperature data interpolated at a higher spatial resolution over Jeju Island were used to predict flowering dates of ``Hayward`` in 2021-2100 under the A1B scenario. According to the model calculation under the future climate condition, the flowering of kiwifruits shall accelerate and the area with poor flowering might increase due to the warmer winter induced insufficient chilling. Optimal land area for growing ``Hayward`` could increase for a while in the near future (2021-2030), whereas such areas could decrease to one half of the current areas by 2100. The geographic locations suitable for ``Hayward`` cultivation would migrate from the current coastal area to the elevated mountain area by 250m.
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