북한의 군부 개편이 대남 도발에 미치는 영향
분야
사회과학 > 정치/외교학
저자
윤규식 ( Kyu Sik Yoon )
발행기관
한국군사학회
간행물정보
군사논단 2012년, 제72권 69~97페이지(총29페이지)
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    영문초록
    It is not easy to expect which effects the military shakeup of North Korea has on the provocation to South Korea. Also it is hard to think if he may lead to provoke South Korea, even though one`s character is hardness and combative nature. Because it is that if the North Korean Army commits to provoke South Korea, generally, it needs to be given approval by Kim Jeong-eun, the supreme commander. Of course, there is exception. It is that the military makes the case first, and then they may report it after. Or while the case is already happened, it may be given an cx post facto approval. However, it is different condition in the case when Kim Jeong-eun, who has the right for the final decision of the military provocation, doesn`t have military career and has a poor ability of the logic of the situation due to a young age. If the military commander decides to provoke South Korea considering the political dynamic relationship such as an interior crisis management and the reinforcement of the militarists, there is high possibility of being obtained approval by him. This is the reason why we are worrying that a person who has a type of field warfare and hardness may be placed in the key cabin position of the North Korean Army during the military shakeup of North Korea. In such sense, the housecleaning of the key executives of the militarists in which Kim Jeongeun is leading whole North Korean Army has great implications for us. Especially, the housecleaning of the prime power at this point of time when the interior condition of North Korea is moving toward the worst condition is that we are bound to be anxious for the provocation to South Korea, considering the combativity of North Korea. Whenever the North Korea was in dangerous, they have used willingly the strategy that makes a crisis. Now there exists an opinion that the establishment of North Korea is shaking and the group of the power structure`s children has escaped from North Korea. While there are a steady increase of North Korean defector, spread of the Korean wave such as South Korean drama and film and flooding of sing and goods, and besides while a shortage of food is deepening to make matters worse, expectation and truth to government has been destroying rapidly. In such domestic and foreign crisis condition, the easy strategy that North Korea may decide for binding together their system and controlling their interior is the provocation to South Korea. The condition that they have to be tempted by an attack card engaging with the present military shakeup has been forming.
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