실현율(그루버지수, 자기확신지수)을 이용한 관광 수요 예측 -엑스포 잠재 방문객 사례-
분야
사회과학 > 관광학
저자
이충기 ( Choong Ki Lee ) , 윤설민 ( Seol Min Yoon )
발행기관
한국관광학회
간행물정보
관광학연구 2012년, 제36권 제2호, 11~29페이지(총19페이지)
파일형식
19701976.pdf [무료 PDF 뷰어 다운로드]
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    Forecasting demand for mega-events is prerequisite for event managers since accurate demand is necessary to determine supply for mega-events. In this respect, the purpose of this study is to compare three types of forecasting methods when predicting demand for Expo visitors. These forecasting methods include 1) forecasts with willingness-to-visit(WTV), 2) forecasts with WTV+Gruber index, and 3) forecasts with WTV+Self-confidence index. The last two methods reflect feasibility rate. To this end national surveys were conducted to residents of 16 metropolitan cities and provinces using telephone and internet surveys. The results indicate that approximately 25 million Expo visitors were predicted by method 1(forecasts with WTV only), 10 million visitors were predicted by method 2(forecasts with WTV+Gruber index), and 18 million visitors were predicted by method 3(forecasts with WTV+Self-confidence index). The findings imply that forecasts with willingness-to-visit only overestimated Expo visitors as compared to such forecasts with feasibility rate as Gruber and Self-confidence indices. Thus, the findings of this study will provide researchers and event managers with appropriate forecasting method when predicting demand for mega-events.
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