베타-PERT 분포에 관한 소고
분야
사회과학 > 경영학
저자
배봉수 ( Bae Bong-soo ) , 서순근 ( Seo Sun-keun )
발행기관
한국경영공학회
간행물정보
한국경영공학회지 2017년, 제22권 제3호, 9~19쪽(총11쪽)
파일형식
2y100377.pdf [무료 PDF 뷰어 다운로드]
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    영문초록
    Three-point time estimates in Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is widely accepted as a popular estimation method in project management and financial risk analysis because of simple structure and fairly accurate estimation. The classical PERT framework for computing mean and variance using three-point estimation formula based on beta distribution is only confined to three combinations of two beta shape parameters. Hence three beta-PERT distributions to satisfy two assumptions in three ones of PERT framework are discussed and compared in terms of flexibility of distribution, robustness, and usefulness. In this paper, new beta-PERT distribution is recommended and also demonstrated how practitioners could use this distribution in actual risk analysis of engineering projects.
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