북한의 국경독재체제와 핵전략
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김태현
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한국국방연구원
간행물정보
국방정책연구 2017년, 제117권 31~68페이지(총38페이지)
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2p801771.pdf [무료 PDF 뷰어 다운로드]
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    The purpose of this study is to analyze and assess North Korea's nuclear strategy. This article deals with the North’s nuclear strategy based on the concept ‘Border Dictatorship (Diktatur der Grenzen).’ The Border Dictatorship Regime means that a dictatorship can survive only in such a condition that the border is kept being closed in a physical and psychological sense. Nuclear weapons play a pivotal role to keep the border intact, where such a regime like North Korea has a chance to survive. In this article I argue that North Korea will pursue a nuclear strategy to increase the ‘credibility’ of nuclear weapons to deter, coerce, defeat and attack the US and ROK. The three critical independent variables to analyze North Korea's nuclear strategy include ‘nuclear capability,’ ‘conventional capability,’ and ‘resolve of the leadership’ to use nuclear weapons. This paper conclude that North Korea is expected to pursue four nuclear strategies such as selective retaliation, assured retaliation, nuclear warfighting strategy, and nuclear first-strike as a result of optimized combinations of three independent variables.
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