분야
hwp제1장 서론 ···························································································· 3
제1절 서 론 ·································································· 3
1.서 론 ·············································································· 3
2.위안화 절상에 따른 경제득실····························································· 3
제2절 연구의 내용 및 방식 ····································································· 4
제2장 한·중 무역 현황및 환율정책의 변화 ····················································· 4
제1절 한·중무역관계 및 현황 ··································································· 4
1.한국경제의 현황 ············································································ 4
2.중국경제의 현황 ············································································ 6
제2절 한·중무역의 관계 ········································································· 8
1.한 · 중 무역 소개 ·········································································· 8
2.한 · 중 무역의 관계 ········································································ 9
제3절 한·중 환율정책의 변화 ·································································· 11
1.환율 제도의 분류 ·········································································· 11
2.한국의 환율정책 ············································································ 12
3.한·중 환율정책의 변환 ···································································· 13
제3장 모델의 선택 ··················································································· 15
제1절 Klein 모델의 건립 ······································································· 15
1.Klein 모델의 원리 ········································································· 15
제2절 탄성계수의 유도 ········································································· 16
1.수출방정식의 탄성계수의 유도 ·························································· 16
2.수입방정식의 탄성계수의 유도 ·························································· 16
제3절 데이터의 선택 및 자료원 ······························································· 17
1.방정식의 유도 ·············································································· 17
2.자료의 내원 ················································································· 17
제4장 통계자료의 처리 ·············································································· 18
제1절 소프트웨어의 소개 ······································································· 18
제2절 논문에서 소프트웨어의 응용 ··························································· 18
1.데이터의 내원과 처리 ····································································· 18
2.데이터처리 결과의 검험 예측 ···························································· 19
제5장 결과의 분석 ··················································································· 20
제1절 소프트웨어의 처리 결과 ································································· 20
1.한국의 수출 방정식 ········································································ 20
2.한국의 수입 방정식 ········································································ 21
제2절 결과의 분석 ··············································································· 21
1.위안화 절상에 대한 국제적 압력 가중 ·················································· 21
2.산업별 영향 ················································································· 21
제6장 제안 ···························································································· 23
제1절 중국정부의 제안 ·········································································· 23
제2절 한국정부의 제안 ·········································································· 24
1. 서 론
중국이 위안화 절상 가능성을 언급하면서 우리 경제에 미칠 영향이 다시 주목되고 있다.
중국의 긴축 신호라는 점 때문에 단기적으로 금융시장의 불안 요소가 되겠지만 궁극적으로는 우리 무역수지 개선에 긍정적인 효과를 가져다줄 것으로 예상된다.
중국의 위안화 절상은 이미 예견돼 왔던 사안이다. 문제는 시점이다. 전문가들은 절상 시점을 4~5월, 절상폭을 5% 정도로 보고 있다.
위안화 절상은 단기적으로 금융시장에 불안요인으로 작용할 수 있다. 연초 중국이 지준율을 인상하자 우리 증시가 급락했던 것과 같은 효과다. 그러나 전문가들은 그 충격이 단기에 그칠 것이며, 오히려 우리 무역수지에 긍정적 효과를 안겨줄 것으로 보고 있다.
우리투자증권 박형중 연구원은 중국이 내수시장 활성화를 추진하고 있는 만큼 위안화가 절상되면 중국 소비자의 구매력이 높아져 한국 제품에 대한 구매 수요가 늘 것이라며 가전이나 LCD 제품의 중국 수출이 늘어날 가능성이 높다고 분석했다.
일각에서는 우리나라 수출품 가운데 중국 내 가공과정을 거쳐 제3국으로 팔리는 제품이 많아 위안화 절상이 부정적 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 우려도 있으나, 중국 내수시장 수출 확대를 통해 얻는 이득이 더 클 것이란 분석이다.
또 국제 시장에서 달러 표시 기준으로 한국 제품이
